Friday, October 07, 2005

What's Wrong with Jamal Lewis?



Two years ago, Jamal Lewis rushed for 2066 yards, third most in NFL history, with an eye-popping 5.3 yards per carry.

Then came that whole cocaine thing. Not only did it tarnish his rep, but it also forced Lewis to accept a four-game suspension for violating the NFL's controlled substances policy during the middle of the 2004 season. And, of course, it sent him to jail - four months in prison, and two months in a halfway house.

Today, Lewis is averaging under 2.5 yards a carry. That's less than half the number of yards per touch he got in his 2003 season, and it's under the NFL standard for running backs, which is around 3.1 YPC.

Now, one could make the argument that Lewis got fat and lazy during his time in state-issued jumpsuits. But when Lewis was in the halfway house, he worked out 12 hours a day. I don't think size and strength are his problems.

Really, I think the problem rests with the offensive line in Baltimore. The offense has given up 9 sacks this season, which puts them in the bottom 12 in the league. Football Outsiders, when ranking the lines, ranks the O-Line as being the worst in the league in adjusted run blocking (which cuts off all runs above a certain yardage, since beyond a point, staying upright is up to the running back and not the offensive line). They're ranked highly in Power Running, which is the FO stat for runs of 2 yards or less that obtained a first down or a touchdown (ranking: 4 in the NFL).

Jamal Lewis is a power runner, so he and his line are good at his game. The O-Line isn't making downfield blocks, which is what makes a power runner into a rushing title winner. In terms of "Stuffed" Runs, (runs on first down that resulted in zero or fewer yards, or runs on 2nd-4th down that got less than 1/4 of needed yards), Baltimore ranks 26th, at 33% (league average is 25%).

In terms of passing, Baltimore is pretty bad, too. They rank 25th in Adjusted Sack Rate (Sacks allowed per hundred pass attempts, corrected for opponents' defensive quality). They're at 8.3 percent. While better than Houston (22%), they're still not very good.

And just watching the games will show you that star lineman Jonathan Ogden is hurt and old, and the rest of the guys on that line are just sub-par. Baltimore is not a threat this season, unless the offensive line really starts to put together a half-way decent season, and soon. As it is now, though, that team should scare opponents less than a feather pillow.

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