Saturday, January 17, 2004

NFL Picks, Championship Round
You know, bad as the XFL was, it was football. You had guys in pads and disturbingly tight pants, and they ran at each other at what approximated breakneck speed and threw and caught and ran...and now it doesn't exist anymore.

Sad to say, the NFL season is almost the same...two weeks and one day and it'll all be gone - just a Super Bowl and a cloud of dust (probably coming from Kid Rock's limo) is all that remains after tomorrow.

Sad, no?

-Carolina at Philadelphia: Carolina will do everything it can to run at Philadelphia's defense, since Jake Delhomme is a good quarterback, but not really really good. Steven Davis's injured quadriceps will be a factor, since Philadelphia's run defense is really quite good EXCEPT up the gut, and his backup DeShaun Foster is a cut-to-the-outside type of runner. If Davis sees extended training table time, the running game against Philadelphia will suffer. On the flip side, Philly's wide receiving corps is as unspectacular and unheralded as Kansas City's without Dante Hall. Donovan McNabb is the guy who makes the passing game click, and without a constant rush and pressure on him, the Panthers do not stand a chance. They're good, but they won't get it, and the NFC representative is PHI.

-Indianapolis at New England: Peyton Manning is one of the best students of the game in modern memory, constantly surveying photographs and altering game plans to compete with a defense's idiosyncrasies (sorry, I just wanted to use that word). To wit, he even plays football, rather than just studying it. He is very good at exploiting blitzes, and Edgerrin James as a runner has very much matured since he blew up his knee - he now waits for blockers and sets them up very well. The Patriots offense will do everything they can to play off of Dwight Freeney, whose tendency to rush upfield without heed for actual play development is well-known. That, and Tom Brady is as good at throwing 18-yard passes as anyone else in the league, and Charlie Weis has designed a gastric staple-friendly offense that exploits Brady's middle-distance accuracy. This one will be far closer than the NFC game, but the result, as I predicted before the wildcards, will be NE in the Super Bowl.

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