NFL Picks - Week 1
Responding to Chris's invitation, I present to the reading public my own theories of who will win every football game this year, week by week.

I'm a dork, and it rocks.

Indianapolis at New England - This Patriots team won 15 straight games, running through the Super Bowl, including a controversial win over the Patriots in the AFC Championship game. The phrase "Any given Sunday" does not apply to the Pats. NE

Arizona at St. Louis - Well, Jason Sehorn is back in St. Louis, so the Rams' defense will be a little bit worse than last year. Football Outsiders propose that because of the random nature of fumbles caused versus fumbles recovered, the Rams looked especially good last year - at the same time, these are the Cardinals. STL

Baltimore at Cleveland - The Cleveland Browns are like the Cardinals of old, except in a different division. A team front office that has no real intention of winning or knowledge of how to legally put together a good group of athletes, combined with Butch Davis as the head coach? Please. BAL

Cincinnati at New York Jets - The Jets have lost three defensive backs over the last four weeks of preseason, two of whom will not play in the game against the Bengals. The defensive backfield's thin-ness, combined with the fact that the Jets' starting running back is the agéd Curtis Martin, makes me think the Bengals will pull this one out. CIN

Detroit at Chicago - Does anyone really care? Let's say the Lions. That sounds about right. DET

Jacksonville at Buffalo - The Jaguars have put together a pretty good preseason, going 3-1, but Byron Leftwich is still hurting on his throwing hand (thumb). The Bills defense, anchored by the overrated Takeo Spikes, is not great, but is also not bad, and I really don't think that J.J. Stokes should ever be considered a go-to guy the way the Jags are. BUF

Oakland at Pittsburgh - Steelers coach Bill Cowher made the right decision, opting to start edge runner Duce Staley over pounding-up-the-gut runner Jerome Bettis. Bettis's style does not jive well with the fact that the Raiders have the best run-stopping defensive line in football - but the linebackers are overrated. Hence, Duce. I think the Steelers' wide receivers will be the real game-breakers in this game, though, because they're very technical guys who run a lot of crossing routes, and there will be a lot of illegal contact flags thrown at the silver and black. PIT

San Diego at Houston - Once again, does anyone care? David Carr is my fantasy backup QB. That's it. That's the only reason to take note of this game. Texans will thrash Martyball. HOU

Seattle at New Orleans - "We want the ball, and we're gonna win!" exclaimed Matt Hasselbeck at the start of overtime in a playoff game against the Packers last year. He was wrong then, but he'll get it right this time. The Saints are on a deep downward spiral. SEA

Tampa Bay at Washington - Joe Gibbs, welcome to the NFL. FedEx field is not that rough a place on opposing teams, despite its incredible size. The Bucs, too, still have a pretty good offense and a decent defense, despite the losses of Sapp and Lynch. TB

Tennessee at Miami - Lamar Gordon is a serious upgrade to the Dolphins' offense, but it doesn't change the fact that Jay Fiedler is their starting QB. Chris Brown is a good back; he's no Eddie George, but maybe that's a good thing these days. TEN

Atlanta at San Francisco - This is a tough call. Crappy team versus crappy team, and one of them's supposed to be good. They won't win, though, and Dennis Erickson gets to feel good about himself and Tim Rattay gets to start for one more week. SFO

Dallas at Minnesota - Actually a tough call. I like Terence Newman, and I think he was a good draft pick last year, but I also think that Kenichi Udeze is a better DL than anyone expected him to be at this point in his young career. The rookie Udeze will eat Vinny Testaverde and his geritol for lunch. MIN

New York Giants at Philadelphia - At some point this season, Kurt Warner is going to look like a good QB again. The Giants offensive line, though, can't keep up its blocking forever, and I think Jevon Kearse is too good a player to be marginalized like he was last year. PHI

Kansas City at Denver - No defense? No problem. Priest cures the ills. KC

Green Bay at Carolina - Maybe I'm tainted by the fact that I'm starting Favre as my QB. Maybe I just recognize that the Panthers will not have the same success this year as last, for the most part because the Packers do not have the same offensive line as they did last year, and Stephen Davis will suffer for it. GB